Predictive Model for Hurricane Wind Hazard under Changing Climate Conditions
نویسندگان
چکیده
Hurricanes are among the most destructive and costly extreme weather events. The intensity of future hurricanes is generally expected to increase due climate change effects. In this work, a simulation method based on comprehensive statistical analysis historical data developed account for changes in climatological conditions their effects frequency hurricanes. This applied simulate hurricane wind speed distributions under different US Atlantic basin from Texas Maine, which one regions world vulnerable hazards. To end, regression models several parameters fit data. proposed model validated by comparing its predicted hurricane-induced speeds with available other existing physics-based path simulation. new found reproduce very well provide projection results that consistent those more computationally expensive tracks. characteristics potential simulated using along projections presented Fifth Assessment Report Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change. study indicate year 2060 depending considered scenario, design Gulf Coasts corresponding mean return intervals ASCE 7 average between 14% 26%, corresponds an wind-induced loads 30% 59%.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Natural Hazards Review
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['1527-6988', '1527-7003', '1527-6996']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1061/(asce)nh.1527-6996.0000458